2013 General Elections National Assembly Election Results Analysis

The 2013 general elections in Pakistan marked a watershed in the electoral and democratic history of the country. The elections were held following the completion of the constitutional tenure of the outgoing assemblies—the first such transition from one purely civilian government to another. The elections were also the first to be organized by the post-18th Constitutional Amendment restructuring of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP).

FAFEN, the leading civil society network covering issues of election and governance, achieved its own landmark in implementing the largest citizen observation exercise to date. The findings of the observation, both on-field and desk, are compiled in a series of reports covering all aspects of the 2013 National Assembly general elections. One of several, this report focuses on the election results and their historical and comparative significance at the constituency level.

The goal behind the report is to present not only a citizen-led Parallel Vote Tabulation exercise but also an in-depth analysis of party and turnout trends and voting pattern in each National Assembly constituency.

Furthermore, given the lack of data in previous elections on turnout trends across the gender divide, the report partially answers the question at regional and national levels by calculating the estimated turnouts by the three (male, female and combined) types of polling stations. FAFEN believes the report will serve as an academic and practical guide to understand the complexities of voting behavior in light of each constituency’s political context.

The report has been prepared by information obtained through the official documents released by the ECP as well as through field observers deployed by FAFEN on Election Day, in particular the Form XIV – the forms on which the results of polling stations are compiled by the presiding officers.

This report reviews the results of 266 of the 272 general seats of the National Assembly. The remaining six constituencies are not in the purview of this report owing to reasons listed as under.

a. Elections were not held in three constituencies (NA-38, NA-83 and NA-254) as part of the general election exercise.
b. The gazette results were withheld due to:

i. ECP’s order of re-polling at 21 polling stations of NA-46
ii. ECP’s order for recounting of votes in NA-103
iii. Supreme Court order to withhold the notification for NA-237

The key findings, as does the rest of the report, therefore, do not account for the above-mentioned constituencies. The summary of findings, covering 266 of the 272 National Assembly general seats, is as follows.

Registered Voters Conundrum

The 2013 elections were the first to be held on voters’ list compiled from the data of Computerized National Identity Cards (CNIC) holders. While the measure did affect an increase in the overall number of registered voters, the impact on registered voters’
numbers for constituencies varied.

Compared with the 2008 elections, the number of registered voters decreased in 100 constituencies. The decrease in constituencies’ voters varied from the lowest of 580 in NA-168 to the highest of 241,692 in NA-266.
In the rest–166 of the 266 constituencies–the number of registered voters increased compared to the 2008 elections. The increase across the constituencies, however, remained skewed. The addition of new voters ranged from a mere 284
in NA-169 to a substantial 143,117 in NA-128.
The issue of under-registration of women voters continues to shadow the constitutionally promised universality and equal representation of voters in the 2013 elections, albeit with varying intensity across regions. Of the 86.2 million voters, 43.6% were females compared to the 80 million voters in 2008 with 44% female voters.
At the provincial level, the ratio has skewed further towards the male side in Punjab and Balochistan—percentages of female voters
changed from 45.9% in 2008 to 42.6% in 2013 in Balochistan and dropped from 45% in 2008 to 43.8% in 2013 in Punjab. The percentages of female voters have increased from 2008 to 2013 in; FATA (from 30.1% to 34.2%), Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa (from 40.7% to 42.8%), ICT (from 45.8% to 46.3%) and more marginally in Sindh (from 44.2% to 44.8%).
Constituency level tracking of registered voters from the finalization of the polling scheme to the result Form XVII and official gazette reveals discrepancies. First, the final polling scheme was not published for the 14 constituencies of
Balochistan and two constituencies of Punjab, namely, NA-105 and NA-107. Furthermore, while the final polling scheme files for NA-90 and NA-178 are available on the ECP website, the data is not accessible for the former due to password protected status of the file. In the case of the latter, NA-178, the file only has the overall voter and polling scheme totals and not the detailed polling scheme itself. It is important to note that the calculation of registered voters in the final polling scheme is based on the listing and calculation of the voter numbers against the smallest unit in the polling scheme–the census bloc.
The distribution of constituencies showing voter discrepancy is significantly skewed across regions. Punjab leads with 57 of the 93 constituencies showing a difference of voters between the final polling scheme and result Form XVII. Khyber Pukhtunkhwa has 16 such constituencies followed by Sindh (15), FATA (4) and ICT (1). Of the total of 246,858 votes in
question, Punjab accounts for 233,225 (94.5%), Khyber Pukhtunkhwa 6,462 (2.6%),Sindh 6,317(2.6%), FATA 580 (0.2%) and ICT 274 (0.1%).
Of the rest of the 254 constituencies, the numbers of registered voters in 93 constituencies were recorded differently in their
2 respective final polling scheme and election 3 results. An absolute discrepancy of voters was recorded in the 93
constituencies—decrease of 39,499 in 30 constituencies and increase of 207,359 in 63 constituencies.
Furthermore, the number of registered voters for the constituencies is not mentioned in the official gazette of returned candidates. While the number of registered votes was mentioned earlier in unofficial result Form XVII, it was the
number of rejected votes that was not mentioned in Form XVII.

Turnout Trends

The turnout across regions and most constituencies shows encouraging trends. PVT estimates aggregated for the 266 constituencies show a turnout of 54.7% (+/-0.03%) at the national level–ECP’s turnout for the same is 55.7%.

Barring 11 constituencies, the rest—255 constituencies—recorded a turnout in excess of 35%–turnout of 26 constituencies ranged between 35-45%, 61 in the range of 45.1-55%, 152 constituencies in the range of 55.1-65%, while that of 16 constituencies surpassed 65%.
Compared to their respective average turnout of the 2002 and 2008 elections, only six constituencies recorded a decrease in the 2013 elections. Of the six, three constituencies’– NAs- 272, 271 and 42–turnout declined substantially by 17.3%, 15.3% and 13.6% respectively. Three other constituencies’–NAs 26, 106 and 107–turnout dropped by less than 1%. Of the other 260 constituencies, 23 constituencies recorded an increase in excess of 20%, 72 had an increase ranging from 15-20%, 74 between 10.1-15%, 73 between 5.1 to 10% range while 18 recorded a marginal increase under 5%.
The turnout analysis by demographic categories has the rural constituencies leading the chart with majority rural and predominantly rural constituencies recording turnouts of 58% and 56% respectively. Majority urban, semi-urban and predominantly urban constituencies follow with 55.5%, 53.5% and 53.2% respectively.
From a comparative perspective however, the ranking is led by the urban constituencies. The substantial increase in turnout is most evident in semi-urban constituencies where compared to the 2008 elections, the 2013 turnout increased by 17%, followed by majority urban and predominantly urban constituencies with turnout increase of 13.2% and 12.8% respectively. Among rural constituencies, the predominantly rural constituencies achieved an increase of 10.9% in their collective turnout
while the majority rural recorded an increase of 10.6% compared to the 2008 elections.
A closer look at the turnout trend reveals a continuation of female under-participation compared to male voters. The PVT estimates aggregated at national and regional levels by types of polling station exhibits lower turnout trends at female exclusive polling stations compared to exclusively male and combined polling stations. The estimated turnout for
female polling stations was 50.7% (±0.07%) whereas the turnouts for male and combined polling stations were 58.5% (±0.06%) and 54.8% (±0.04%) respectively.

Higher Number of Rejected Votes

A key issue observed in the 2013 elections is the disproportionate and significant increase in the number of rejected votes—the number while increasing from 775,720 in 2002 to 973,694 in 2008 recorded a substantial increase of 64% to reach 1,502,717 in the 266 constituencies observed.

The issue of rejected votes is critical not merely due to the numbers but also given the skewed distribution across constituencies and regions–the numbers range from 0 in NA-53 to 25,562 in NA-266.
The distribution of rejected votes paints a somber picture in that only 27 of the 266 constituencies have less than 2,000 rejected votes. Of the rest, 78 had rejected votes from 2,000-5,000, 148 constituencies ranged in 5,001-10,000, and ten constituencies fell in the 10,001 to 15,000 category while three constituencies had rejected votes exceeding 15,000.
From the results’ perspective, the issue is highlighted further by the fact that the number of rejected votes exceeds the margin of victory in 35 of the 266 constituencies covered in this report. Of these, the rejected votes outnumber the margin of victory by less than 1,000 votes in six indicating an acquired importance of rejected votes due to close competition. In the other 29 constituencies, the number of rejected votes outweighs the margin of victory by as little as 1,140 (NA-153) and as many as 19,701 (NA- 266).

Voting and Party Trends

The 2013 election witnessed returns for parties that varied across regions and provinces. While Sindh largely produced similar results—PPPP dominated rural Sindh while MQM urban areas, particularly Karachi—the other provinces underwent a significant change. PML-N and PTI were the largest beneficiaries of the change in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa while Pakhtun and Baloch nationalist parties made a strong comeback in Balochistan. Among the religious parties, JUI—while far from the overwhelming performance of MMA—secured significant votes and seats in both Khyber Pukhtunkhwa and Balochistan. The elections, apart from Sindh, could be seen as an expression of noconfidence against the ruling party—PPPP—and its coalition partners.

For the 2013 elections, a total of 4,462 contestants vied for the 266 constituencies covered in this report. PTI fielded the most candidates, competing from 230 constituencies, followed by PPPP (227), PML-N (215) and MQM (207). Independent candidates constituted the largest group with 2,343 while other parties fielded a total of 1,240 candidates cumulatively.
From the perspective of gender representation and participation, the 2013 elections had the most female candidates (161) compared to the number of female candidates in the previous two elections—75 and 61 candidates contested in 2008 and 2002 elections respectively. Most–123 of the 161–contested either as independent candidates (95) or from the platform of smaller/regional parties (28). Among the mainstream parties, PPPP awarded tickets to 15 females, followed by MQM, PMLN, PTI, and PML with 8, 7, 6 and 2 candidates respectively.
Of the 161 women contestants, only 6 were successful in winning their seats in the 2013 elections compared to 16 and 13 successful female candidates for the 2008 and 2002 general elections respectively. Three female candidates each from PPPP and PML-N secured the constituencies, as against successful female candidates representing four parties in 2008 and five in 2002.
PML-N won 126 of the 266 constituencies covered in this report. PPPP was a distant second with 33 followed by PTI (28 seats), MQM (18), JUI (11), PML-F (5), JI and PKMAP (3 each), NPP and PML (2 each). Of the rest, 27 seats were secured by independent candidates while ANP, APML, PML-Z, BNP, AMLP, AJIP, QWP and NP shared one seat each.
A measure of the desire for change among the electorate can be ascertained from the fact that of the 266 constituencies, 144 featured winning candidates with their current political affiliation for the first time since the 2002 election. Of the rest of the 116 constituencies, 58 each returned candidates/parties for the second and third consecutive time.
PML-N replaced PPPP as the largest party, securing 14,794,632 (32.6%) of the 45,416,463 votes polled in the 266 constituencies. PTI was the distant second with 7,738,270 (17.0%) votes followed by PPPP (6,973,169 or 15.4% votes), MQM (2,455,313 or 5.4% votes) while independent candidates cumulatively got 5,810,894 (12.8%) votes. While no other party reached the 2 million vote figure, JUI (1,486,261), PML (1,410,113), and PML-F (1,072,846) were successful in garnering support of over 1 million voters.
Among the three leading parties, PML-N secured the largest, though less than the majority share, of the votes polled in each of the five demographic categories of constituencies. The party was able to get 29.1% of the votes polled in predominantly urban constituencies, 42.6% of the majority urban, 36.4% of semi urban, 31.5% of the majority rural and 33.1% of the predominantly rural constituencies.
PTI, the second largest party had 24.7% of the vote polled in predominantly urban constituencies, 23.1% of the majority urban, 14.2% of the semi-urban, 13.8% of the majority rural and 15% of the votes polled in predominantly rural constituencies. PPPP as the third major party outperformed PTI in predominantly rural, majority rural and semiurban
constituencies securing 17.2%, 21.8% and 21.4% of the votes polled in the respective categories. The party however performed poorly in predominantly and majority urban constituencies securing 6.9% and 12.1% votes polled in the respective type of constituencies.

1 Balochistan’s 14 constituencies as well as NA-90, NA-105, NA-170 and NA-178 are not accounted for owing to the non-availability of their final polling schemes.
2 Detailed final polling scheme for all regions barring Balochistan and four constituencies of Punjab were accessible
at http://ecp.gov.pk/PollingScheme.aspx, downloaded on May 16th, 2013.
3 Form XVII data was accessible from http://ecp.gov.pk/electionresult/AllResults.aspx?assemblyid=NA , downloaded on September 16th, 2013.

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