2013 GE Preliminary Electoral Rolls 2012 Accurate But Incomplete
As part of FAFEN’s comprehensive election observation strategy, a long-term observation of critical processes and implementation of laws, rules and regulations was conducted between February and May 11, 2013 — the day elections were held. The observation was carried out at the district level prior to the announcement of the election schedule. Following the announcement of the schedule constituency level observation was initiated in 267 constituency to spearhead the pre-election observation exercise.
FAFEN deployed trained, non-partisan observers in 267 out of 272 constituencies across the country. The findings of the observation collected on comprehensive and standardized checklists as well as detailed analysis of official data on registered voters, polling scheme and candidates form the core of this report.
The findings and observations of key processes – where applicable – are preceded by relevant legal, procedural and regulatory frameworks. Recommendations relevant to each section are given at the end of each chapter. Below is the summary of observation findings and analysis based on direct observation of the pre-election processes as well as interviews of election administration officials, political party leaders and contesting candidates.
Electoral Rolls
Following the adoption of CNIC-based electoral rolls, the overall number of voters and the quality of electoral rolls in terms of voter information, improved significantly. While the number of registered voters increased by 6.4% compared to 2008, the increase was not uniform across the regions and the constituencies.
At the regional level, the highest increase in terms of percentage of overall registered voters was recorded in Islamabad Capital Territory (30.3%), followed by FATA (20.4%), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (15.1%) and Punjab (10.7%). On the other hand, Sindh and Balochistan witnessed a 2.8% and 23.5% decrease in the number of registered voters respectively.
At the constituency level, number of registered voters decreased by over 4.2 million in 100 out of 266 constituencies where the elections were held and analyzed, while the registered voters in the remaining 166 constituencies increased by over 9.3 million – boosting the overall total for the 266 constituencies from around 79 million in 2008 to above 84.5 million in 2013.
Interestingly, the overall increase in registered voters further skewed the composition of voters towards rural constituencies primarily at the cost of pre-dominantly urban areas. The number of registered voters in predominantly rural constituencies increased from 73.2% of the total registered voters in 2008 to 73.6% in 2013. Conversely, the share of predominantly urban constituencies witnessed a proportionate decrease—from 19.9% of the total registered voters in 2008 to 19.5% in 2013.
The skewed variation was also recorded in the proportion of female voters both at regional and constituency levels. At the regional level, the proportion of female voters decreased compared to the 2013 in Balochistan (from 45.9% to 42.6%) and in Punjab (from 45% to 43.8%). The proportion of female voters, however, increased in Sindh (from 44.3% to 44.9%), ICT (from 45.8% to 46.3%), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (from 40.7% to 42.8%), and encouragingly in FATA (from 31.4% to 33.9%). The decrease in the two regions however affected an overall decrease in the proportion of female voters by almost half a percentage point—from 44.1% in 2008 to 43.7% in 2013. From another perspective, the overall proportion of female voters decreased from 78.6 female for 100 male voters in 2008 to 77.4 in 2013.
The uneven change of female share of registered voters is also evident at the constituency level. As many as 171 of the analyzed 266 constituencies witnessed a decrease in female voters compared to the 2008 elections. It is however encouraging to note that 95 constituencies—some with historically low female voter proportion and concentrated in FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa—witnessed increase in the proportion of female voters. Regardless, the chronic issue of female under representation remains a concern that will require sustained and focused efforts in the days ahead.
Candidacy Processes
The number of contesting candidates and political parties increased sharply as the country witnessed the first-ever democratic transition from one elected government to the other. As many as 106 parties contested the polls in 2013 compared to only 36 in 2008 and 58 in 2002. In total, 4,462 candidates contested the polls in 2013 – twice the number of candidates in 2008 and 2002 (2,205 and 2,066 respectively).
Majority of the candidates (2,673 out of 4,462, or 84.9%) contested the National Assembly polls for the first time in 2013. As many as 420 (9.7%) returned to the electoral race for the second time since 2002. Moreover, there were 233 (5.4%) who participated in the polls for the third consecutive term.
Of the 420 candidates contesting the National Assembly polls for the second time, 163 (38.8%) had a different party compared to the previous polls. Similarly, of the 233 candidates contesting the polls for the third time, 138 (59.2%) had changed their party affiliation at least once, while the remaining 95 (40.8%) contested the polls from the same platform in all three elections.
A party-wise analysis of new candidates shows a reluctance of leading political parties such as PML-N and PPPP to award tickets to these contestants As a result; new contestants tend to contest the polls independently or from the platform of smaller political parties.
From the perspective of women representation, even though the number of women contesting the National Assembly polls has increased over the years, their percentage share in the total number of candidate remains minimal, indicating the political parties’ lack of interest towards gender parity. Though certain parties such as PPPP have witnessed an increase in the share of women candidates, other parties such as JI and JUI-F have not fielded any female candidate in any of the past three general elections. In 2002, of the 2,066 candidates who contested the polls, 61 (2.9%) were women. Though the number increased to 75 in 2008, women represented only 3.4% of the 2,205 candidates. Similarly, women constituted only 3.6% (161 out of 4,462) of the total candidates in 2013.
Polling Scheme
The issue of polling scheme is at the heart of ensuring voter facilitation efforts. While the ECP did publish the final detailed polling scheme on its website, taking a major step towards transparency of the polling scheme, there remained several exceptions. For instance the final detailed polling scheme was not published on the ECP website for all of Balochistan and some constituencies of Punjab, i.e. NA-90, 105, 170 and 178.
Considering the importance of the polling scheme and polling staff issues, the election administration took several steps to make the process relatively more inclusive and transparent. FAFEN observers reported 122 meetings between ROs/AROs and various stakeholders to discuss issues pertaining to the polling scheme.
To gauge the opinion of the contestants on polling scheme, FAFEN conducted interviews of 1,107 NA candidates or their campaign managers to assess their satisfaction with the polling scheme and deployment of polling staff. Of the 730 (66%) candidates who had received the polling scheme at the time of their interview, 597 (81.8% of 730) were satisfied, while 74 (10.1%) were not. Only 287 (25.9%) candidates had received the list of polling staff, out of whom 248 (86.4% of 287) were satisfied while 11 (3.8%) expressed their dissatisfaction.
From the perspective of voter facilitation, FAFEN obtained a copy of the final polling scheme from the ECP website and conducted a region-wise analysis to ascertain the average number of voters per polling booth in each region. The ECP’s data showed a significant difference between the average voters per polling booth across different regions. A total of 193,459 polling booths were established for 86,250,898 voters across the country, averaging at 446 voters per polling booth. Compared to the 2008 polling scheme there was an improvement in voter facilitation as 170,416 booths were set up for 80,927,877 voters in 2008, giving an average of 475 voters per booth in 2008.
The differences across the regions, especially with regards to the difficult terrain remained an issue, as FATA—with its tough terrain—had the highest number of voters (525) per polling booth in 2013, while ICT—boasting a much better transportation infrastructure—had the lowest (335) number of voters per polling booth on average.
Code of Conduct: Implementation and Violations
As a critical regulatory framework, the Code of Conduct for the political parties and candidates not only helps streamline and standardize the conduct of campaign but also ensures a fair ground for all contestants by limiting the influence of money and armed tactics to solicit votes. Keeping in view the importance of the Code of Conduct, the ROs/AROs held 34 meetings with various stakeholders in which issues pertaining to the code’s implementation were discussed.
FAFEN deployed its observers in 267 out of 272 National Assembly constituencies to record Code of Conduct violations by candidates, political parties and other stakeholders during the pre-election period. The observers reported a total of 36,029 violations across the country which comprised 29,066 violations related to campaign material, 5,006 unauthorized rallies and activities, 1,599 incidents of voter inducement/coercion and 358 cases of hate speech and undemocratic practices including personal attacks on opponents and use of parochial sentiments such as religious, sectarian and ethnic slogans to solicit votes.
The observation also included the candidates’ perspectives on ECP’s vigilance over election campaigns and implementation of the Code of Conduct. Despite the high incidence of Code of Conduct violations, majority of the candidates appeared satisfied with the ECP. Of the 1,107 interviewed candidates, 776 (70.1%) were satisfied with the ECP’s vigilance over campaigns, while only 99 (8.9%) were dissatisfied. Similarly, 700 (63.2%) said they were satisfied with the implementation of Code of Conduct, with 171 (15.5%) expressing dissatisfaction over the issue.
Election Security and Incidents of Violence
The 2013 General Elections marked the first-ever democratic transition from one elected government to the other in the country’s history. The context of the elections was, therefore, fraught with threats of anti-systemic violence, more so than any other election. Keeping in view the impact of violence in hampering sustainable democracy in the country, FAFEN carried out direct observation of violence incidents across the country as part of its election observation program in addition to monitoring coordination between stakeholders on security issues.
In order to ensure foolproof security and address the concerns of candidates, political party representatives and government officials, the ROs/AROs conducted 166 meetings in which security arrangements prior to the elections were discussed. FAFEN conducted interviews of 90 DPOs prior to the elections, out of whom 57 (63.3%) were satisfied with the available resources to deal with security situation while 18 (20%) were not. As many as 16 (17.8%) DPOs claimed that the ECP did not cooperate in ensuring foolproof security measures in their districts, while only 43 (47.8%) were aware of the ECP’s Code of Conduct and instructions given to the police for the elections.
FAFEN also conducted a total of 2,334 interviews of political party representatives to determine the incidents and threats of violence perpetrated against them. There were only 69 (3%) interviews where party representatives claimed victimization in violence incidents, 127 (5.4%) interviews where the party representatives claimed intimidation and 38 (1.6%) where the respondents said their party members had been restricted from carrying out election campaigns.
Moreover, FAFEN’s on-field observers reported a total of 424 incidents of violence that left 165 dead, 690 injured and 11 kidnapped prior to the elections. These included 185 (43.6%) incidents of systemic and 239 (56.4%) incidents of anti-systemic (militant) violence. Of the 165 people who lost their lives, 10 (6.1%) were victims of systemic violence while 155 (93.9%) were killed in militant violence. Of the 690 injured, 215 (31.2%) were targeted in systemic violence, while the remaining 475 (68.8%) were victims of anti-systemic violence.
The overall level of violence in pre-election phase rendered the 2013 elections as one of the most violent in recent history.
Election Administration and Management
Effective coordination and cooperation between stakeholders and availability of sufficient resources is essential for effective management of the election. The ECP, on its part, made a significant effort to conduct the elections in a transparent and inclusive manner and by providing necessary training and material to key officials.
During the pre-election period, FAFEN observed various aspects of the election management and conducted interviews of key officials and stakeholders to ascertain their level of satisfaction with the overall arrangements for the elections.
In general, the polling officials received sufficient training to carry out their duties. However, a considerable proportion of election officials were dissatisfied with the available resources. Out of 99 DECs interviewed, 62 (62.6%) were satisfied with the resources at their disposal, while 23 (23.2%) claimed the funds were insufficient. Similarly, nearly half (138 or 53.9%) of the 256 interviewed ROs were satisfied with the available resources, while 22 (8.6%) said the funds given to them were insufficient.
Most of the ROs had received complete election material from their respective DECs and were satisfied with the quantity of the material provided to them. Only 19 out of 98 interviewed ROs claimed to have received incomplete material from the DEC office.
However, the need for an effective complaint handling mechanism to entertain the concerns of key stakeholders remained unaddressed throughout the elections as a large number of officials failed to implement any mechanism in their respective regions. Of the 99 interviewed DECs, only 59 had implemented a complaint handling mechanism. Similarly, only 33 (51.6%) out of 64 DROs and 119 (46.5%) out of 256 ROs had implemented a mechanism to entertain the complaints of stakeholder.
Similarly, the facilitation of marginalized voters also remained a low priority, with only 34 (34.3%) DECs and 67 (26.2%) ROs taking steps to assist voters with disabilities. Moreover, 115 (44.9%) ROs had taken steps to facilitate women voters, while 73 (28.5%) had taken measures to assist minority voters.
Neutrality of Government and Election Administration
The neutrality of caretaker governments and election administration is vital to the credibility and acceptability of free, fair and transparent elections. However, the pre-election period witnessed rampant misuse of state resources/authority by candidates and political parties as well as government officials.
A total of 5,528 cases related to the misuse of state resources/authority were reported from across the country, which included the display of campaign material on state property, use of government vehicles for canvassing and government officials’ participation in election campaigns. As many as 1,617 incidents of postings and transfers were reported from across the country, nearly 80% of which took place in Punjab. A total of 694 (42.9%) officials were transferred in the police department, while 294 (18.2%) officials in the district and tehsil administration were transferred in various parts of the country. Furthermore, FAFEN observers reported the transfer of 24 election officials prior to the 2013 General Elections.
FAFEN conducted 2,334 weekly interviews of political party representatives to assess their satisfaction with the impartiality of the government and election administration. The respondents in 1,049 (45%) expressed reservations over the impartiality of security officials/agencies, while 1,143 (49%) accused the district administration for being partial/biased. Likewise, the respondents in 1,185 (53.4%) interviews expressed dissatisfaction with the caretaker governments.
However, the contesting candidates were relatively satisfied with the neutrality of the government and election administration. Of the 1,107 interviewed candidates, only 82 (7.4%) expressed dissatisfaction over the impartiality of the caretaker federal government, while 103 (9.3%) blamed the district administration for being partial/biased. Only 27 (2.4%) candidates were dissatisfied with the neutrality of their respective DECs; 41 (3.7%) showed concerns over the neutrality of ROs; 24 (2.2%) were displeased with the DROs while 27 (2.4%) had issues with the respective AROs.
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